My column at the American Spectator today (obligatory note of caution: ballots are still being counted in Washington, and some more came in and were counted after my deadline for this piece passed; this is most important to bear in mind when reading the second-to-last paragraph):

Washington State has a well-deserved reputation as a politically dark blue locale, virtually incapable of electing Republicans to major statewide offices, or to a majority of congressional seats. But with the GOP emboldened by a sour economy, long-term high rates of unemployment, and voters concerned about the deficit and national debt, political operative groupthink is now tending towards the view that a Republican wave will sweep Democrats out of office, including in places like the Evergreen State this year. Tuesday's top-two, "jungle" primary results offered an indicator of why Washington Republicans seeking to oust incumbent senior senator Patty Murray might just have good cause to cheer, with just over two months to go until Election Day.

Murray, who is currently serving out her third term in the Senate and acts as Harry Reid's number four in Senate Democratic leadership, failed to reach the 50 percent mark Tuesday in a contest where she had no serious Democratic competition -- but plenty of Republicans on the ballot.

Moreover, the most well-known among them, her months-ago predetermined general election opponent Dino Rossi, took just under 34 percent of the vote to Murray's 46 percent -- a tally best described as too close for comfort....

My friend, Garrett Quinn, has a fairly flame-thrower-esque post over at his Boston.com blog. As a fellow hater of government-spending, immigration librul, and right-of-center individual not losing my [expletive] hourly over the planned Ground Zero mosque, there's a lot that I instinctively agree with here on a gut level. And Garrett's writing is very, very good. Here's an excerpt, but please go read the whole thing:

The tea party movement was something many libertarians had great hopes for when it really came to life shortly after Rick Santelli’s rant on the floor of Chicago Mercantile Exchange in early 2009. It was a sign to many of us that there was hope for a large and national small government movement. Conservatives who spent most of the last decade pushing libertarians out of the Republican Party were even joining in and championing the movement in their media echo chambers. Things were going great until Obamacare passed because shortly after that, the movement started chasing shiny objects like a distracted dog. Yes, the primary focus remains cutting taxes and shrinking government but now the tea party is chasing squeaky emotional chew toys like illegal immigration and the mosque/community center/theatre space/whatever in Manhattan.

[...]...

Tomorrow, the results in Washington's top-two, "jungle" primary will finally be tallied, and general election matchups in three competitive races Republicans hope to win-- Washington Senate, and the third and eighth district congressional races-- will be set. Inside the Evergreen State and in the nation's capital, those watching events are curious what will ultimately happen.

Will Clint Didier make a decent showing and deprive Dino Rossi of an opportunity to match Patty Murray's share of the vote-- or come close-- straight out of the gate?

Will the Seattle Times' endorsement of Dave Reichert opponents Suzan DelBene and Tim Dillon hurt the incumbent, demonstrably?

Will David Castillo edge out Jaime Herrera, who seems to have more support from voters I know in Washington's third district, but who is not universally loved in a part of the state where Republican infighting has been relatively heavy?

Earlier today, I polled about twenty Washington Republican insiders, ranging from party officials to former electeds to political operatives, asking them what they expected to see when all the votes are counted tomorrow night. The figures below represent the average of the numbers respondents provided in respect of each race. In square brackets is the highest number predicted; in parentheses is the lowest number predicted. Some of the more interesting comments offered by respondents in relation to each race are also set out below the average numbers (please note that the overwhelming majority of respondents did not comment, merely offered numbers). [intro]

WA-Sen:

Didier: 13% [18%] (10%)

Murray: 45% [48%] (42%)

Rossi: 31% [40%] (23%)...