September 10, 2007

GOP candidates and foreign policy

Ross Douthat at the Atlantic has an interesting post up today about the GOP candidates and what to expect in terms of foreign policy. I highly recommend it.

Here are the most interesting bits, for me:

Rudy Giuliani, for instance, seems to have the most hawkish advisors of any candidate, and the particular hawks he's chosen suggest that a Giuliani administration would drop at least some of the Bush-era democracy-promotion business, and take a view of the War on Terror that's closer to Andy McCarthy, say, than to Reuel Marc Gerecht. John McCain, as befits a candidate who started out hoping to be the consensus GOP choice, is more ecumenical in his choice of advisers, with everyone from Kissinger and Lawrence Eagleburger to Robert Kagan and Bill Kristol bending his ear; his determination to stake his primary campaign on the surge notwithstanding, it seems reasonable to suggest that a McCain Administration would be meaningfully more cautious and multilateralist than its predecessor. Romney's campaign is a bit more of a black box; his chief foreign policy adviser, Steven Schrage, a former Zoellick appointee at the Trade Representative's office, isn't exactly a household name. But - and make of these Washington whispers what you will - I've had a number of people tell me that despite his Santorumesque posturing on the looming threat of an international caliphate, Romney is privately much more friendly to old-school realism, as befits his northeastern-Republican, business class background.

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So keeping in mind that all of this is guesswork to some extent, I think it's reasonable to suggest that if you're hoping for a Middle East strategy that involves widening the war's scope (to Iran, and perhaps elsewhere), then you should cast in your lot with Rudy Giuliani. If you're looking for an Administration that resembles the R...

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September 10, 2007

Interesting new Gallup numbers

Giuliani: 34% (+2)
Thompson: 22% (+3)
McCain: 15% (+4)
Romney: 10% (-4)

Looks like Thompson is taking support from Romney.

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September 7, 2007

Presidential notes for the day

First up: Cesar Conda, a member of Team Romney, is blasting Rudy's economic record, apparently claiming that he's not just moderate on social issues, but also economic ones, and that Romney is much more economically conservative. This marks the first time that the Romney camp has sought to attack Rudy on a non-social issue, and I don't think it's going to work out very well for them. Those paying attention will remember that the Club for Growth assessed Rudy's economic/fiscal record as quite stellar, whereas they described Romney's record thusly: "Promise and Puzzlement"-- hardly a ringing endorsement.

I've had my quibbles with Club in the past, but it's fairly obvious that Club does an excellent job of nitpicking. If they found little to fault in Rudy's record, and plenty to praise, that tells me that the guy's record is not being over-hyped by his campaign. Likewise, note that it wasn't just them that found fault with Romney's record. The CATO Institute strongly criticized Romney in their Fiscal Report Card on America's Governors last year, writing:

Romney will likely also be eager to push the message that he was a governor who stood by a no-new-taxes pledge. That's mostly a myth. His first budget included no general tax increases but did include a $500 million increase in various fees. He later proposed $140 [million] in business tax hikes through the closing of "loopholes" in the tax code. [...] In his budget for 2006, he proposed $170 million more in business tax hikes. [...] If you consider the massive costs to taxpayers that his universal...

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