My piece yesterday at Red County:

At the outset of the 2010 cycle, both Republicans and Democrats were firmly focused on the same two Washington congressional races: Those in Washington’s Third District, and in Washington’s Eighth.  Democrats believed the Eighth, held by Rep. Dave Reichert—and one of the most competitive in the country—could be poached.  Republicans, meanwhile, had long considered six-term incumbent Brian Baird to be the most vulnerable Democrat in Washington’s congressional delegation; that was before summer 2009 and the health care debate, following which Baird announced his intention to retire. 

But now, two months away from Election Day, the situation has dramatically changed.  The Eighth no longer looks as competitive for Democrats, and both parties’ attention has focused in sharply on the Third. ...
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Via DailyKos (and I'm including their images here, too):

So, ladies, you say you want a raise? How should you go about getting it?

First, you have to figure out how to compete with the guy in the next cubicle. After all, he went to a school almost as good as yours. His grades were nearly as good as yours, too. He works hard. In fact, most mornings, he's the second person in the office. You know this, because you're always first. He is young, ruggedly good looking, and he washes his balls with a manly but fresh sandalwood soap.

What to do?

Fortunately, the good folks at Women's Day and Summer's Eve have a few words of advice for you.

(No, this is not from the Onion. It is really from a full page ad in Women's Day)

What is the very first thing you should consider if you want a raise? What is the most important thing of all?

Yup, wash that vagina, and wash it good. Remember the sandalwood-scented balls. You don't want any, ahem, untoward odors to interfere with your chances, do you? What's that you say? You don't have an odor problem? You're clean, you bathe regularly, and you don't really need advice to use a product that "cleanses away odor-causing bacteria from the external vaginal area?" What are you, a barbarian? This is a raise you're talking about.

That was #1 on the "how to get a raise" list. What was last, least important? Well, after the "wash your vagina" advice, it must be something truly inconsequential, perhaps related to toenail hygeine with closed-toe shoes, right? Let's look:

Accomplishments? Who cares? You're a woman. Nobody wants to know about your accomplishments. No, what really matters is a great fresh cut flower smell from you-know-where.

I guess the people at Summer's Eve haven't read this indispensable item from The Atlantic, entitled "The End of Men."  If they had, they'd realize that increasingly, the answer to the question: "Who's The Boss?" is, as on the show, "her," not "him."  And setting aside that sexual harassment laws are really intended to, you know, prevent your boss from being in a position to assess your "personal hygiene," that kind of suggests that really, there's a pretty good chance these days that your boss, if you're a lady, wouldn't want to.  Straight women don't tend to spend a lot of time thinking about their subordinates' hoo-has.

Oh wait, that wasn't the point.  The point was that you're supposed to feel good about yourself as a professional woman laying out your self-worth to your boss in the hopes of more money, as opposed to, you know, laying yourself out, if you get my drift.  Well, that's cool, because usually, modern women assess their self-worth based on the presence of that "not-so-fresh feeling" (I'm pretty sure that's Summer's Eve advertising lingo right there) as opposed to, you know, adding to the company's bottom line, or recruiting excellent staff, or just doing a kickass job each and every day at work.  And nothing makes you feel like you can play at the same level as the boys like being reminded that you really ought to clean it up so you can feel just as good as the guy in the next office who, like most guys, doesn't even remember to shave on a daily basis.

This is probably the lamest ad I've ever seen.  It's especially lame that it's popping up on a day commemorating women getting the vote (be sure to wash before you dig out that voter card this November, girls!).  I'm tempted to stomp my feet and say "I'll never buy Summer's Eve again," except I can't say I've ever bought anything they produce before.

Oh well.  There goes my pay raise next year. ...
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SurveyUSA polled 562 likely voters in Washington's third district and look what they found: Jaime Herrera leads Denny Heck 54/41 among likely voters, with 5 percent undecided.  Good news for Washington Republicans, all around.

Or is it? 

Among friends who scrutinize polling rigorously, I've heard some questions raised lately about why SurveyUSA's numbers seem more Republican-favorable than those from other polls this cycle. 

Do their determinations as to who qualifies as a "likely voter" in 2010 indicate a better screening process given the overall environment? 

Or are they screening out people who will ultimately vote Democratic, no matter what they're saying now? 

Is their methodology appropriate for Washington, a state that is almost 100 percent vote-by-mail, making voting a relatively painless, low-effort exercise that less fired-up voters may ultimately participate in despite low enthusiasm because, well, the ballot is sitting on the kitchen table, so why not? 

Or does the vote-by-mail situation actually guarantee Republicans an edge: Voters favoring Republicans have an easy route to voting for them, and given general unhappiness with leadership in Washington, DC, they'll go ahead and tick the "R" box, just because it's so easy?

It's hard to say at this point, but one thing I find interesting is that SurveyUSA's results here correspond almost exactly with the vote breakdown in this month's top-two primary.  In that contest, Republicans aggregated about 54 percent of the vote (the same number as pick Herrera here).  Democrats aggregated about 42 percent (so one point more than indicates support for Heck here).  That makes these numbers look credible, though it is worth noting that as it stands today, Herrera is likely at quite a significant financial disadvantage that she will need to correct, and correct soon, to get 54 percent on the day.

According to OpenSecrets.org, as of the end of his last finance report, Denny Heck had about $700,000 cash on hand.  Herrera had just $113,000.  Moreover, Heck had at that point brought in close to $650,000 in donations (and contributed $350,000 to his campaign himself).  Meanwhile, Herrera, who entered the race about a month before Heck, had at that point raised about $410,000.

Momentum is with Republicans right now, and many knowledgeable political observers are predicting a wave.  But in a district like the third, facing an opponent like Heck, TV is going to be pretty determinative of how things ultimately go, and to win, Herrera either needs to be able to match Heck dollar-for-dollar, or do a web ad that is so outside-the-box and attention-grabbing that it can't avoid being covered by TV she would otherwise have to pay for.  This isn't intended to be an advertisement for the services of Fred Davis, but the reality is, this race is winnable and will probably be close-- but for Herrera to beat Heck, especially given how soon ballots will go out (it's just around the corner, really), she's going to need to either haul in and spend a lot of cash starting right now, or do something that genuinely grabs attention.

Demon Sheep, anyone? ...
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Marc Ambinder has the news:

Ken Mehlman, President Bush's campaign manager in 2004 and a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, has told family and associates that he is gay.

Mehlman arrived at this conclusion about his identity fairly recently, he said in an interview. He agreed to answer a reporter's questions, he said, because, now in private life, he wants to become an advocate for gay marriage and anticipated that questions would arise about his participation in a late-September fundraiser for the American Foundation for Equal Rights (AFER), the group that supported the legal challenge to California's ballot initiative against gay marriage, Proposition 8.

"It's taken me 43 years to get comfortable with this part of my life," Mehlman said. "Everybody has their own path to travel, their own journey, and for me, over the past few months, I've told my family, friends, former colleagues, and current colleagues, and they've been wonderful and supportive. The process has been something that's made me a happier and better person. It's something I wish I had done years ago."

Go read the whole thing.

Already, notorious gay-Republican-outer (and life-destroyer) Mike Rogers is out there trashing Mehlman.  Other gay liberals are doing the same.

Meanwhile, the overall response I'm hearing from conservative friends-- including those who oppose gay marriage, supported the Federal Marriage Amendment, and oppose initiatives like ENDA and hate crimes legislation, is ranging from "meh, no big deal" to "good for him"-- both of which seem like appropriate responses here, but are, I'm afraid, not what we're going to hear from the ostensibly pro-equality side over the next 24 hours.  That's too bad, because this is kind of a big deal-- and something that actually speaks volumes about how much society has changed when it comes to how we perceive gay men and lesbians, and frankly how they perceive themselves within it.

I'm a straight woman, so I really know nothing firsthand about how hard (or not) it is to come out of the closet.  But I do know that a number of my gay friends who work in politics, both liberals and conservatives, have found it to be among the toughest things they've ever done.  For Republicans, it is especially hard because irrespective of where you personally have been on issues like gay marriage, gay adoption, anti-discrimination law, and so on, there is a perception that if you're gay, you're genetically programmed to be a liberal.  And if you think keeping taxes and spending low is important enough that you've been willing to work for someone who isn't in favor of gay marriage, well, goodness knows you'll be dubbed a hypocrite, traitor and worse, all because you refuse to let your sexual orientation guide your political philosophy.  Frankly, that's something that those of us who are straight and pro-gay marriage, pro-DADT repeal, and so on on the right side of the aisle deal with anyway.  But put it on steroids and that, I suspect, is the situation that Ken Mehlman anticipated he'd face when coming out, and now it is likely to take shape, rather predictably.

It shouldn't.  Ultimately, those who favor equality in every aspect of life, under the law, should be glad they have a new champion on the right side of the aisle-- typically seen, often with good cause, as less gay-rights-friendly than the left side of the aisle.  They should be glad that increasingly, we have prominent examples of gay and lesbian Republicans to remind us all that we live in a country that is so equality-minded in practice that actually, a former chairman of the RNC-- one of the most powerful and influential political operatives in his party-- can come out, wave the flag, and argue for a conservatism that accepts everyone who loves freedom, regardless of who they are attracted to, and what genitalia they have.

There are a lot of countries where Mehlman saying what he did to Marc Ambinder would make him a de facto criminal.  We're fortunate to live in one where people can be and say who they are, with pride-- both in terms of their sexual orientation, and in terms of their political philosophy.

Ken Mehlman no doubt lifted a great weight off his own shoulders by coming out.  But he also did a politically powerful thing whose effects will be felt for some time.  If you believe polling that shows that society becomes more gay-friendly the more people become aware that they have a gay friend, a gay relative, and perhaps in this case also, a gay political mentor, or a gay advocate for their philosophy, then Ken Mehlman single-handedly has probably helped move the country, and the Republican party, in a more gay-friendly and equality-minded direction.  That's a good thing that should earn him some respect, if not praise, from those who have vigorously disagreed with political stances taken by his former boss, George W Bush, and the maneuverings of folks like Karl Rove.  As a Republican who favors gay marriage, gay adoption, and DADT repeal, I can tell you I'm much happier knowing Mehlman is out, and is engaging on the marriage issue, specifically.  If he could engineer victory for George Bush, imagine how he might be able to help on that front alone. ...
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SurveyUSA did some polling in the aftermath of the Washington primary last week, and looky here at what they found.  Statewide, among likely voters, Rossi leads Murray 52 to 45 percent.  But more interestingly, in metropolitan Seattle, Rossi ties Murray with 48 percent.

Last week, I pointed out that Murray's approval numbers, according to SurveyUSA, were in the toilet, both statewide and in metropolitan Seattle, where a gigantic glut of liberal voters live.  Just 41 percent of adults approved of her performance across the state; in metropolitan Seattle, it was just 43 percent. 

These most recent numbers certainly seem to indicate some further, real challenges for Murray as she heads towards Election Day, though it does bear noting that as we've seen with California (reminder: I consult for Carly Fiorina in the Senate race there), SurveyUSA's numbers tell a different tale from other polling outfits. 

Their methodology could be producing a different (and erroneous) result here. 

Or, they could be dead-on in their assessment, which seems to lend credence to anecdotal evidence I am constantly, and nearly universally, hearing out of Washington, from folks on both sides of the aisle: Democratic, non-union base voters are demoralized; Republicans (and Republican-leaning Independents and Democrats) are energized. 

While I haven't seen much private polling of the race for a couple of months now, on the basis of what I have seen previously, and this, and the Murray versus Republican share of the vote as evidenced in last week's primary, my instinct is to think Murray and Rossi remain just about evenly matched, but that Rossi is just every-so-slightly ahead of her and could win this by a nose (to borrow some horseracing terminology).

But whether he's just slightly ahead, or just slightly behind, this remains one of the "must-watch" races this cycle. ...
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My column at the American Spectator today (obligatory note of caution: ballots are still being counted in Washington, and some more came in and were counted after my deadline for this piece passed; this is most important to bear in mind when reading the second-to-last paragraph):

Washington State has a well-deserved reputation as a politically dark blue locale, virtually incapable of electing Republicans to major statewide offices, or to a majority of congressional seats. But with the GOP emboldened by a sour economy, long-term high rates of unemployment, and voters concerned about the deficit and national debt, political operative groupthink is now tending towards the view that a Republican wave will sweep Democrats out of office, including in places like the Evergreen State this year. Tuesday's top-two, "jungle" primary results offered an indicator of why Washington Republicans seeking to oust incumbent senior senator Patty Murray might just have good cause to cheer, with just over two months to go until Election Day.

Murray, who is currently serving out her third term in the Senate and acts as Harry Reid's number four in Senate Democratic leadership, failed to reach the 50 percent mark Tuesday in a contest where she had no serious Democratic competition -- but plenty of Republicans on the ballot.

Moreover, the most well-known among them, her months-ago predetermined general election opponent Dino Rossi, took just under 34 percent of the vote to Murray's 46 percent -- a tally best described as too close for comfort.

Even worse for Murray, when the votes cast by supporters of other Republicans -- namely former Washington Redskins player and Tea Party favorite Clint Didier (who garnered about 12 percent of the vote) and businessman Paul Akers (who garnered about 2.5 percent) -- were added to Rossi's total, Republicans collectively bested Murray's take of the vote, 48 percent to 46. ...
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