A new Elway Poll released yesterday contains some bad news for Sen. Maria Cantwell. Just 40 percent of the 405 registered voters surveyed say she's doing an "excellent" or "good" job, while 52 percent say she's doing an "only fair" or "poor" job. Compare that to an equivalent point in 2005, just ahead of her last re-election, and it represents a significant slide: Then, 52 percent said she was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, and 38 percent said she was doing an "only fair" or "poor" job. Those are numbers that have some Republicans in Washington hopeful, once again, about picking off a Senate seat, though other numbers in the poll hint at why those same Republicans might not want to hold their breath.
46 percent of those surveyed in this poll would re-elect Cantwell, while 36 percent would replace her, a near replication of the numbers she carried around this time in 2005, when more voters thought she was performing well as a senator. So, like last time, the poll shows Cantwell maintaining a 10-point advantage over "somebody else"-- and that's the real key here. Cantwell beat Republican opponent Mike McGavick 57 percent to his 40 percent last time around. A ten point gap is a ten point gap, except when it turns into an even bigger gap. Cantwell has some experience of exploiting opponents' vulnerabilities, flaws and weaknesses to run up her numbers, so at a minimum, to keep that gap as small as possible and make this race competitive, Republicans had better start planning now to put forward a highly credible, top-notch candidate-- and even then, get ready for disappointment....
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